Will this summer get hotter than normal?
Is your city also being tormented by sustained heatwaves this July? Perhaps we still remember the heatwaves of 2022 vividly, and this year, extreme high temperatures have arrived early, with record-breaking temperature extremes being continuously refreshed in many places.
Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University, suggests that future generations may describe this summer as "one of the coolest summers in their lifetime."
Is this the impact of "global warming"? Will the weather get even hotter in the future? In this edition of GREENEXT Talks, we explore these questions together and discuss how we can protect ourselves and our families in the face of escalating temperatures.
Heatwaves Sweeping Across Countries
According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States, on July 3rd, the average surface temperature of the Earth reached a staggering 17.01°C, marking the highest level since data records began in 1979. Just when we thought it couldn't get any hotter, on July 4th, the average surface temperature of the Earth skyrocketed once again to 17.18°C, breaking the previous record. On July 6th, the average surface temperature of the Earth set another new record, reaching 17.23°C. The "hottest day on Earth" was once again surpassed!
Since the beginning of summer, Beijing, Hebei, Tianjin, and many other places have repeatedly exceeded 40°C, with red alerts for high temperatures issued. In addition to China, heatwaves have also broken records in many regions of Southeast Asia. For example, on May 13, Singapore recorded a temperature of 37°C, tying the country's highest recorded temperature since 1929. In the months of April and May, eight Southeast Asian countries, like Singapore, broke their national records for high temperatures.
Extreme heat caught many people off guard, resulting in catastrophic consequences. Since March, soaring temperatures in Mexico have claimed at least 112 lives. The state of Bihar in India experienced a heatwave that led to the death of at least 44 people.
On June 18, 2023, in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, India, a man splashes water on his face to cool down during a scorching summer afternoon. ©视觉中国
Extreme heat also poses challenges to the power supply in various countries, exacerbating heat-related conditions for residents. In mid-April, when the temperature in the Philippines rose to 37 degrees Celsius, nearly 150 students in a school south of Manila suffered from heatstroke due to a power outage, and several were sent to the hospital for treatment. Due to the excessively high temperatures in the capital city of Dhaka, Bangladesh, primary school students across the country have been given a break from classes for a period of time. Additionally, there has been a widespread power outage throughout the country due to a shortage of fuel.
El Niño is back
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with the warming of surface ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It occurs approximately every 2 to 7 years and typically lasts for 9 to 12 months. El Niño can trigger weather changes in various regions, such as causing floods in typically dry areas or droughts in rainy areas.
On May 11, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released an observation report titled "El Niño Is Knocking," indicating that the El Niño index has rapidly risen over the past month, soaring from a neutral value of 0 degrees Celsius to +0.5 degrees Celsius (below -0.5 degrees Celsius indicates La Niña, while above +0.5 degrees Celsius indicates El Niño).
The surge in ocean temperatures, particularly the rapid warming of the equatorial Pacific, led NOAA to conclude that El Niño is likely to form between May and July 2023 and persist into the winter, with a probability of 82%. The "State of the Climate" report published by the World Meteorological Organization stated that 2016 became the hottest year on record due to a "double blow" of a very strong El Niño event and climate warming caused by human activities.
According to China Meteorological Administration, several institutions have predicted that 2023 or 2024 is highly likely to set a new global temperature record. However, whether this record will actually be broken depends on the intensity and duration of El Niño.
©Muhammad Amdad Hossain
Against the backdrop of global warming, the climate anomalies caused by the exacerbation of El Niño exhibit diverse and comprehensive characteristics. According to Xinhua News Agency, the National Climate Center predicts that under the intensified development of El Niño, there will likely be increased precipitation and a higher risk of flooding in southern parts of East China, central parts of Central China, and southwestern regions.
Meanwhile, the eastern part of Northwest China is expected to experience reduced precipitation and a higher risk of meteorological drought. A previous study from Tsukuba University in Japan showed that El Niño could also alter atmospheric circulation, leading to an unusually high number of typhoons. The number of typhoons generated after the formation of El Niño increased significantly after September of the following year.
In recent years, Bosnia and Herzegovina have been affected by extreme weather events related to climate change, such as heavy rainfall, heatwaves, droughts, and floods.
The occurrence of extreme drought, abnormal high temperatures, and devastating floods have had an immeasurable impact on global agricultural production. According to reports from Guolunhui, various agricultural products, including sugar, soybeans, palm oil, cotton, corn, and rubber, are experiencing varying degrees of influence.
How to Protect Ourselves and Our Families?
Recently, the National Health Commission of China released the "Public Health Protection Guidelines for High-Temperature Heatwaves," providing guidance for the public to adopt scientific measures to prevent and reduce the health impacts of high-temperature heatwaves.
Meanwhile, GREENEXT also suggests:
Pay attention to vulnerable groups, especially elderly people living alone.
Do not leave anyone, especially babies and young children, inside locked cars. This also applies to pets.
If going out in hot weather, reduce vigorous activities and take timely rest.
When cooling off in open water areas such as beaches or rivers, be aware of hidden risks.
Provide assistance to those who work outdoors for the operation
Attached are the "Public Health Protection Guidelines for High-Temperature Heatwaves" issued by the National Health Commission.
