Our last chance to save the earth?
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently released its latest report - IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
Approved by 195 countries, the IPCC report assesses the impacts of climate change, looking at ecosystems, biodiversity, and human communities at global and regional levels.
This is the second of a three-part review. The third part of the IPCC report is due in April and will cover ways to cut greenhouse emissions. The report characterizes adaptation measures so far as halting and insufficient and makes the consequences of inaction wrenchingly clear.
In this edition of GREENEXT Talks, let’s take a look at our key takeaways from the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report.
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But first,
What is IPCC?
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IPCC reports are written by hundreds of leading scientists from 195 countries and are a synthesis of thousands of peer-reviewed scientific papers.
The IPCC consists of three Working Groups. Working Group I is concerned with physical science, Working Group II looks at impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, and Working Group III deals with mitigation. The current report was prepared by Working Group II.
#1
Climate impacts are already more widespread and severe than expected
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Climate change is already causing widespread disruption in every region in the world with just 1.1 degrees C (2 degrees F) of warming.
The previous version of this report, from 2014, spent a lot of ink on projected impacts; the new report noticeably devotes pages and pages to events that have already occurred.
Wildfire in Lowell, Oregon | ©Marcus Kauffman/Unsplash
Withering droughts, extreme heat and record floods already threaten food security and livelihoods for millions of people. Since 2008, devastating floods and storms have forced more than 20 million people from their homes each year.
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According to the report, nearly half the world’s population (roughly 3.3 to 3.6 billion people) lives in places that are highly vulnerable to climate change. Today, half the global population faces water insecurity at least one month per year. Wildfires are scorching larger areas than ever before in many regions, leading to irreversible changes to the landscape.
And there’s no inhabited region on earth that has entirely escaped the disastrous effects of rising temperatures and extreme weather events.
#2
Risks will escalate quickly with higher temperatures, often casuing irreversible impacts of climate change
Glacier in Iceland ｜ ©Pexels
The report finds that every tenth of a degree of additional warming will escalate threats to people, species and ecosystems. Even limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) — a global target in the Paris Climate Agreement — is not safe for all.
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For instance, with just 1.5 degrees C of global warming, many glaciers around the world will either disappear completely or lose most of their mass; an additional 350 million people will experience water scarcity by 2030; and as much as 14% of terrestrial species will face high risks of extinction.
#3
Inequity, conflict and development challenges heighten vulnerability to climate risk
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Right now, 3.3 billion-3.6 billion people live in countries highly vulnerable to climate impacts, with global hotspots concentrated in Small Island Developing States, the Arctic, South Asia, Central and South America, and much of sub-Saharan Africa.
©UN Women/Mohammad Rakibul Hasan
Inequity, conflict and development challenges such as poverty, weak governance, and limited access to basic services like healthcare not only heighten sensitivity to hazards, but also constrain communities’ ability to adapt to climatic changes.
In highly vulnerable nations, for example, mortality from droughts, storms and floods in 2010-2020 was 15 times greater than in countries with very low vulnerability.
©UN MINUSTAH/Logan Abassi
Not only do these urban and rural development patterns shape such unequal experiences of climate hazards, they also make ecosystems themselves more vulnerable to climate change. Land-use change, habitat fragmentation, pollution and species exploitation are weakening ecological resilience. And ecosystem loss, in turn, amplifies people’s vulnerability.
#4
Action was needed yesterday, but action tomorrow can and will help
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The magnitude and rate of climate change and associated risks depend strongly on near-term mitigation and adaptation actions. Safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystems is fundamental to climate resilient development, in light of the threats climate change poses to them and their roles in adaptation and mitigation.
Recent analyses, drawing on a range of lines of evidence, suggest that maintaining the resilience of biodiversity and ecosystem services at a global scale depends on effective and equitable conservation of approximately 30% to 50% of Earth’s land, freshwater and ocean areas, including currently near-natural ecosystems.
This report has a particular focus on transformation and system transitions in energy; land, ocean, coastal and freshwater ecosystems; urban, rural and infrastructure; and industry and society. These transitions make possible the adaptation required for high levels of human health and well-being, economic and social resilience, ecosystem health, and planetary health.
Source:
IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/
IPCC - Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policymakers
www.report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg2/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf
World Resources Institute - 6 Big Findings from the IPCC 2022 Report on Climate Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
www.wri.org/insights/ipcc-report-2022-climate-impacts-adaptation-vulnerability
Bloomberg Green - Key Takeaways from the new IPCC climate risk report
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-28/five-key-takeaways-from-the-new-ipcc-climate-risk-report